Red Sox Century

An Occasional Bit of Wisdom...

2008-12-04T19:23:00.000-08:00

from Tony Massarotti, regarding the Tazawa acquisition:

If and when the Red Sox sign a prominent free agent this offseason -- Mark Teixeira, anyone? -- that maneuver would require the Sox to forfeit a first-round selection in next year’s amateur draft. And so here comes Tazawa, a talented young man whom Sox officials privately have compared to a mid- or high-first-round selection.

This might be the case. Though probably not a mid- to high-level 1st round pick, Tazawa's certainly comparable in terms of possible risks and rewards to a recent college graduate in the 1st or 2nd round. What makes Massarotti's case most compelling are the numbers: the 3.3 million that Tazawa got himself is in line with the 4 million that 1st overall selection Pedro Alvarez got in 2008, and it's extremely likely that those were the numbers used as a starting point during negotiations. The fact that we're paying Tazawa less than Alvarez (and a year later, as well) probably says more about the short length of the contract than our assessment of his talent.

So does signing Tazawa ensure a Teixeira acquisition? Of course not. But it displays intelligence and planning, as well as a willingness by the Red Sox front office to hedge their bets.

Sox Acquire Wes Littleton

2008-12-02T17:37:00.000-08:00

In a move that can only be interpreted as the front office preparing to move one or more of our top pitching prospects (Masterson, Bowden and Buchholz), the Red Sox acquired Wes Littleton last Friday from the Rangers for a player-to-be-named-later or cash considerations.

Now there are serious questions regarding Littleton's place on the Red Sox roster, given that we already have 38 players allocated, with Varitek and Byrd not currently holding roster spots. Factor in any acquisitions during next week's winter meetings, and Littleton might be heading to Triple-A fairly soon. Still, I see this as being a pretty good move for the Sox. Another trade is likely to occur later this off-season with the Rangers, and Littleton could easily be integrated into a larger package, potentially helping to create parity between the two sides. His numbers are pretty solid, and as a consistent ground ball pitcher, he could be used in specialty late-inning roles: what if we end up trading Javier Lopez in a larger deal? Littleton would perfectly fill his shoes. Perhaps the most revealing statistic that presents Littleton as a possible replacement for Lopez in the future? Their PECOTA projection for career GB% is exactly the same, steadily 55% (and only 4% lower than the man Lopez was brought in to duplicate, Chad Bradford).

One of the more promising statistics when looking at Littleton is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. While never reaching the league-average 2:1, it's gotten progressively closer in his three seasons in the majors (last season, he posted a 1.75:1 line. The year before? 1.5:1), and in the extremely limited playing time he saw last season, he did manage to exceed his PECOTA projection in most of his peripherals (his walks-per-nine were a little high). Again, the size of the sample is frustratingly low, but I think that this certainly isn't a bad move for the Sox: he's not going to cost much of anything (he might even be effectively free), and he could fill an important situational need (in the absence of Lopez, he could induce GDIPs or get out of dangerous early innings when our starting pitcher is finished and our opponent has multiple runners on base).

It's also possible he could turn out to be just another minor leaguer who sees limited major league time in spring training and September. But the kid's 25 and cheap as hell, and given that predicting the value of low-level relievers from year to year is one of the most difficult jobs in the game, often you just have to take chances with young guys. Luckily, Epstein is smart enough to look for players who have the ability to blossom into role players while also fulfilling organizational needs if the situation arises.

How Bad Was Clay Buchholz?

2008-11-20T22:24:00.001-08:00

Much has been made recently about the Rangers' glut of prospect catchers compared with their terrible lack of pitching depth. It isn't difficult to see. With four catchers (three of whom are highly touted prospects nearly major-league ready), one has to realize that the Red Sox, who have the depth at pitching needed to land one of these, are a likely suitor. Once you look at the strong free-agent starting pitcher class (little help for the small-market Rangers), it becomes even more likely that the Red Sox will let go of one or more of their MLB-ready pitchers (Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson). With the trade of Coco Crisp to KC for hard-throwing reliever Ramon Ramirez, it seems plausible that Epstein is preparing for Masterson's departure, but it's too early for even the GM himself to know who will stay and who will go.

Hopefully, he'll only trade Buchholz if the most exalted prize is dangled before him (think Jake Peavy). Because despite a terrible line this season, there are a good number of reasons to expect Buchholz to far exceed his diminished expectations in 2009.

Before I launch into my argument, it should be stated that my opinions aren't particularly controversial. If you want to really be convinced that Buchholz will be a beast in years to come, talk to any major league scout, they're pretty much unanimous in their praise for this kid. And even if you don't care what the old-school scouts have to say, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections should provide a pretty convincing second opinion.

The most important number for the 22-year-old throughout 2008 had to be his strikeout and walk numbers. Though his walk total was higher than he might have liked, 4 BB/9 inning, that number is only 0.5 BB/9 inning higher than his optimistic PECOTA projection (and the league average in 2008). Even more tantalizingly, his strikeout numbers were a full strikeout higher than what PECOTA expected (8.7 SO/9 innings), and almost 2 SO/9 higher than league-average. So what accounted for his disastrous showing? A number of factors that bode well for his future. First, there were the home runs. Allowing 1.1 HR/9 innings is embarrassing (though only .1 HR/9 worse than league-average), and cannot possibly last. Some scouts were suggesting early in the season that by dropping his arm angle slightly below three-quarters, his pitches were flattening a bit and batters were taking advantage. Whatever the cause, you can be sure it will have been corrected before Buchholz takes the mound. Confidence, though unquantifiable, was clearly an issue as Buchholz continued giving up the long ball, and his dominance in Triple-A and the Arizona Fall League should help buttress his self-esteem.

But what about the 10.5 hits he was giving out every 9 innings? In 2007, when his RA was an absurd 2.7, helped by a no-hitter and a tiny sample size. With good strikeout numbers and few walks, he gave up a respectably low 7 H/9 innings. At the same time, his Delta-H, a statistic meant to isolate the effect of BABIP on pitchers, was a -2, signifying that slightly more balls were finding fielders' gloves than one would expect, given their skills as defenders and the general effects of the ballpark. In 2008, when his hits per nine innings increased around thirty percent (to 10.5/9 innings), his Delta-H number swung from -2 to 15 (14th highest overall for the season). Of the twenty highest Delta-H totals, the lowest RA (ERA + unearned RA) was 4.13 (Josh Beckett, Delta-H 13). Buchholz had the second-highest RA total (RA 7.46) though the average of the twenty was a sad 5.97, with the average through the majors at RA 4.69. Again, the important peripherals looked good: his strike-to-walk ratio was just beneath the league average (about 2:1).

The organization still loves this kid, and expects him to break out any day. According to Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald (Subscription Required) an unnamed scout from "another team's club" thinks this kid is ready to eat up the majors. After seeing Buccholz in the Arizona Fall League, the scout says,

“I think he’s gained some of his swagger back. He lost some confidence during the year, but his velocity was back. He was throwing 91-95, and was free and easy. He had a dominant curveball and a plus change. He didn’t need his slider. He looked focused on the mound. It looked to me like his arm slot was the same as it used to be, with a high three-quarters release, which adds to the depth of his breaking ball. This guy has three plus pitches and should be a front-of-the-rotation starter. His ceiling is very high."

Do we really want to see the Rangers score a thousand runs and smoke us with Buchholz's mid-nineties fastball, "a dominant curveball and plus change"? I want to see Epstein and co. give this kid another chance on the big stage.

No More Coco--How Does That Affect Off-Season Plans?

2008-11-19T17:13:00.000-08:00

As most die-hard Sox fans know, Coco Crisp was acquired to fill the void left when we parted ways with Pokey Reese. We needed another strangely-named player, and Coco Crisp was also going to help add quickness and defense to our outfield (he also had a killer 2005 season). Now, with Coco gone to KC for Ramon Ramirez, we have to ask ourselves: what strange-named player will come to replace Coco? Personally, I'd love to let a year or two go by with relatively-normal names, only to "shock the world" by acquiring Prince Fielder from Milwaukee to replace an injured, aging David Ortiz. Fielder's injury-prone makeup, his incredible offensive acumen and his piss-poor defense seem to make him the perfect fit for our true-DH slot.

Baseball Prospectus's Christina Kharl provides a bit of insight (Subscription required) into why Boston made such a seemingly-undervalue move. She explains that

"with this deal the Sox still have their stack of blue-chip pitching prospects and one less slot for them to fill, and that wee bit of additional financial flexibility"

This will, hopefully, allow us to move some of our top pitching prospects for big-ticket acquisitions, without having to worry too much about relief pitching later in the free agent season.

Once again, a smart move from the Red Sox front office.

Hot Stoves & Hollow Hopes

2008-11-19T16:26:00.000-08:00

In his most recent "MAZZ" entry, Boston Globe writer Tony Massarotti writes,

"Here's a prediction: By the time this is over, win or lose, the Red Sox effectively will have made Mark Teixeira the largest contract offer in the history of your storied franchise."

He fails to justify this claim, admitting that this is in no way backed up by private conversation (in fact, he admits that off-the-record, team officials claim there is little interest on the Red Sox's part).

He goes on to say,

"In the case of Teixeira, rest assured that the Sox want him, no matter what games are being paid [sic] by club officials."

This is total crap. The Red Sox are clearly trying to drive Teixeira's price as high as they can for the Angels or Yankees, depending on where he ends up. We would love to see either one of them sink $25 mil+ per year on him. If he doesn't fit with our team, organizationally, at least make him fill as much salary space as possible elsewhere.

There is no question that Theo Epstein would love to see a player of Teixeira's caliber in his lineup and on the field--any manager would. However, one's desires are always tempered by one's situation, and this is true for the Red Sox just as it is for the Astros or Twins.

Teixeira doesn't fit in with the realities of our organizational needs. To start, we owe Mike Lowell $24 million over the next two years (though he figures only to be the everyday starter for only one). Even assuming we could move Mike Lowell for more than a hill of beans (which would only make his hefty contract from last season seem unjustifiable) few teams would take more than half of that salary. Increasing Teixeira's effective salary in 2009 and 2010 to somewhere around $30 million is hard to justify. It becomes harder to justify when we look at our farm system. Lars Anderson, our highest-rated prospect, is a 21-year-old power-hitting 1st baseman who pulls the ball extremely well (a makeup perfect for Fenway). After moving quickly through the minor leagues, he landed in AA Portland. In 133 at-bats, Anderson often struggled, going through terrible weeks where he had high strikeout totals and little power (link no longer available). He still managed a .316/.436/.526 line. Compound with this the fact that his projected MLB debut is next September's 40 man call up, and signing Texiera seems even less likely.

Sorry, Sox fans, but you'll have to be happy spending that money elsewhere.